"Hezbollah is getting stronger"

Fareed Zakaria  speaks some painful trtuhs  on ABC's This Week*:

The idea that you will be able to eliminate Hezbollah just doesn't make any sense, because what they feed on more than anything else is hatred, and intensity of emotion....

I would argue that Israel is of coure justified. Hezbollah is the bad guy here. But ask yourself a simple question: Is Hezbollah  stronger than it was three weeks ago? It has some sympathy from the Maronites. It has more sympathy for the Sunnis. It has more sympathy from the Shiite and Sunni of Iraq. On a very fundemental level I would argue Hezbollah is getting stronger.

And Zakaria was saying this before he seemed to know of air strike that killed about 50 Lebanese civilians, mostly children. 

Contrary to much of the chatter about how the dynamic developing--of Hezbollah essentially fighting Israel to a statement (and thus effectively winning)--that really shouldn't be a surprise. Fighting a counter-guerilla campaign has never worked well from the air, nor have efforts to bomb people into submission. 

But that's all (recent) history. The question is what should Israel do now. And honestly, I'm just not sure.

I've argued for the past two weeks that Israel has made a big mistake by using such heavy force. But now that it's done so the calculation has changed. If Israel outright stops its campaign today or tomorrow, then there will be a near consensus: Israel failed. It failed to protect its soldiers at the outset, it failed to protect its citizens from rockets, and it failed to crush Hezbollah.

Israeli leaders know that, which is why I can't imagine they'll agree to a ceasefire right now.  They'll lose too much strategic street cred. And honestly, that gives me pause too. But I don't know that Israel can regain that cred by fighting. In fact, time so far has been working against Israel. More pictures of Lebanese suffering, more time that Hezbollah has held out, etc. etc.   So maybe the best Israel can hope is to  stop the fighting, and push for international forces to form their own buffer zone and (fingers-crossed) keep Hezbollah at bay....

*No transcript is up yet. I just happened to watch--and Tivo--it.

Comments

[Zathras]

I'm not sure how realistic all this talk about an international force is. Who would contribute troops to it, knowing that their people would become targets of Hezbollah if they resisted that groups efforts to prepare for more rocketing of Israel, and targets of the Israelis if they didn't?

In any event, the passions of the moment have led most Lebanese to look on Hezbollah with favor. Will that last? Specifically, once the fighting stops, will the idea that Hezbollah is defending the people it dragged into Nasrallah's War lose some currency? Will Lebanese start to object if Hezbollah immediately starts taking arms deliveries from Syria and Iran in preparation for the next round? And if they do object will any consequences flow from it?

[Rafe]

The international force Bush and Blair talked about would theoretically bolster the Lebanese military as it moves into southern Lebanon and disarms Hezbollah. On what planet is the Lebanese Prime Minister going to start a civil war with Hezbollah?

[Elharrar]

International condemnation of Israel be damned. Israel will always be second guessed, chastised and demonized by the Arabic world and most of the EU given their growing Arab populations. I would suggest that France and rest of the community put themselves on a hot strip of Middle Eastern sand, surrounded by Arabs who are sworn to their destruction and see how easily restraint comes to you when every day is a day of survival. We sit here in our confortable offices, with the AC going, protected and unconcerned with the rest of the world, as long as the oil keeps flowing. Israel has the right to take action, and yes, unfortunately, children will be killed because these cowardly Hisbolleh terrorists park their fanatical asses in neighborhoods full of families, while they lob their missiles. Get real and take your street cred supplication and shove it.

Ya, stick up 2 israels ass just like that. U ppl dnt know shit abt whats been goin on, n 2 the that bitch who said hezbolla is packed its fanatical ass in homes of families, dnt u know that those families r hezbollah? hezbolla aint no military, its a resistance which means it COMPROMISES of CIVILIANS. Yeas israel has always succeeded in genocide, n ettin away with huge destruction, truth is HEZBOLLA IS GETTING STRONGER. In a few more decades time, israels gonna be fukked, no actually raped to fukkin destruction k?????? israels neva won a war with Lebanon. How u like 2 stick that fact up ur fanatical ass?????