Eric Umansky

I don't know what to make of this

But looks like the world is sometimes more complicated than we think. From industry newsletter Inside the Pentagon [sub required]:

The Army’s most junior enlisted ranks have been shrinking in number since Sept. 11, 2001, despite service reports that the terrorist attacks prompted an initial surge in recruiting and re-enlistment, according to Defense Department data obtained by Inside the Pentagon.

Army leaders have acknowledged problems this year in achieving their recruiting goals, with many defense analysts blaming the ongoing turmoil in Iraq as a significant disincentive for many contemplating military service. But the defense data show serious drops in new recruits and privates not only predating the war in Iraq but going back as far as fall 2001.

[B]etween Oct. 1, 2001, and Oct. 1, 2002, the lowest-ranking grade -- those designated E-1 recruits -- shrank by 32 percent, dropping from 31,220 strong shortly after the Sept. 11 attacks to 21,246 just one year later. The body of newly recruited active-duty Army soldiers dropped again the following year, with the service losing another 7.6 percent for a total of 19,629 new recruits at the outset of fiscal year 2004.

A letter that caught my eye

Today's  NYT letters-to-the-editors are almost wholly exclusively about the president’s speech. Among the writers is one Jorge L. Baron:

First, [the president] said the reason we are fighting in Iraq is that we are better off fighting terrorism abroad than having to fight it at home. The president's second point, however, was that our strategy in this war is to train the Iraqi Army to the point that it can fight the insurgents-terrorists on its own and our troops can come home.

[...]

[I]s the president saying that our strategy is to leave the security of the United States in the hands of an inexperienced Iraqi Army as soon as we can?

More on Iraqi journalists killed

As a said this  morning in TP, a wire piece  inside the Journal  mentioned that "an Iraqi journalist was apparently killed by GIs after he didn't pull over as their convoy was passing; it is reportedly the third such killing of an Iraqi journalist in the last week."

Al-Jazeera has the only story I've seen focused on the killings:

An Iraqi television director has allegedly been shot dead by US troops after driving near a military convoy in Baghdad, according to colleagues and a hospital official.

[snip]

On Sunday, Maha Ibrahim, a news editor with the local Baghdad TV channel, was killed when she was allegedly shot when US troops opened fire after they apparently came under attack in a Baghdad neighbourhood, channel director Saad al-Bayati said.

On Friday, another Iraqi reporter working for an American news organisation was shot and killed in Baghdad allegedly by US troops after he apparently did not respond to a shouted signal from a military convoy, witnesses said.

For the record,no,  I don't think journalists per say are being targeted. And I don't think GIs are intentionally killing any civilians.  Here's what Chris Allbritton said yesterday:

I think the Americans have gotten a lot more trigger-happy and twitchy after the campaign of car bombs and other violence that has gripped Iraq for the last, what? Five weeks? Six? I've lost track. I can't tell anymore what headlines from the Associated Press listing the number of dead are new bombings or just updated casualty figures from earlier in the day.

“We have a choice now,” said A., my gruff, scotch-drinking office manager, confidant and mentor in all things Iraqi. “We can be killed by Zarqawi or the Americans.”

It's war and some amount of twitchiness is unavoidable--but there things that can be done to minimize it.

The Church's Latest Crusade

"VATICAN TIGHTENS NOCTURNAL EMISSIONS STANDARDS' - the Onion.

What the last throes of the insurgency looks like

Chris Allbritton returns to Iraq and concludes...

Iraq is a disaster. I've been back one day, and the airport road was the worst I've ever seen it. We had to go around a fire-fight between mujahideen and Americans while Iraqi forces sat in the shade of date palms on the side of the road, their rifles resting across their laps. My driver pointed to a group of men in a white pickup next to me. “They are mujahideen,” he said. “They are watching the Americans.” Indeed, they were, and so intently that they paid no attention to me in the car next to them. We detoured around two possible car bombs that had been cordoned off while Iraqis cautiously approached.

Chris continues here:

The Americans have killed two Iraqi journalists inside of a week. One was killed Friday and I just heard news of the other. I know a lot about the first death, but at the request of his family, I can't publish much because his widow fears retribution for her husband having worked for a Western news organization. But he was killed with a single shot to the head by Americans in a passing convoy.

The second I don't know much about, as I just heard about it. Details haven't started coming in yet.

I think the Americans have gotten a lot more trigger-happy and twitchy after the campaign of car bombs and other violence that has gripped Iraq for the last, what? Five weeks? Six? I've lost track. I can't tell anymore what headlines from the Associated Press listing the number of dead are new bombings or just updated casualty figures from earlier in the day.

“We have a choice now,” said A., my gruff, scotch-drinking office manager, confidant and mentor in all things Iraqi. “We can be killed by Zarqawi or the Americans.”

More Prisons (Literally)

From AP:

The U.S. military said Monday it plans to expand its prisons across Iraq to hold as many as 16,000 detainees, as the relentless insurgency shows no sign of letup one year after the transfer of sovereignty to Iraqi authorities.

And I continue to wonder and worry: Is  the U.S. is being sufficiently discriminate in picking up suspects? It did not used to be.

Iraqi Prison Population -- Still Surging

Since late last year,  I've  been noting and perplexed by evidence of the swelling numbers of detaineess held by the U.S. in Iraq. Yesterday's LAT had this:

The number of prisoners held by the U.S. in Iraq reached record levels this month before falling slightly. As of Saturday, the average prisoner total in June stood at 10,783, up from 7,837 in January and 5,435 in June 2004.

The two main U.S. Army-run prisons, Abu Ghraib and Camp Bucca, are operating near their maximum or "surge" emergency limits. On Saturday, the two prisons together held 10,178 inmates, with 1,630 detainees awaiting processing in different Army divisional and brigade headquarters.

[...]

Maj. Gen. William Brandenburg, who oversees U.S.-run prisons in Iraq, had planned to be out of Abu Ghraib by early spring. "I believed it until mid-December, but the numbers just weren't going that way," he said. "Business is booming."

The LAT takes a stab at explaining the apparent surge:

Efforts to relieve the prison crowding by speeding up releases have been frustrated, officials say, by an increase in detainees deemed a high risk to commit acts of violence if set free. A Combined Review and Release Board of three U.S. officials and six Iraqis — two each from the ministries of interior, justice and human rights — reviews each prisoner within 90 days of arrival.

Those judged too dangerous to be released can be held indefinitely with reviews every six months.

A second joint Iraqi-U.S. review board has been created in hopes of speeding up prisoner releases. But an increase in alleged hard-core detainees has partially stymied the process. Through the end of last year, Rudisill said, about 40% of the detainees who were reviewed were judged "high risk" or "extremely high risk." Since January, that percentage has risen to 60%. 

"We're holding on to more and more of them," Rudisill said.

I'm glad there is a joint panel. I am also skeptical of the percentages. Last month,  the Wash Post cited the same trend then noted, "Since January, 88 percent of those detained have been rated '"high risk'." So which is it, 88 percent? 60 percent?

P.S. Note to newspaper editors: The bulging number of detainees is not a new trend anymore.

More on Iraqi Infiltration

From IWPR's Iraqi Press Watch:

INTERIOR MINISTRY QUESTIONS TOP OFFICIALS (Baghdad) - An Interior Ministry official told al-Mustakbal Radio that the ministry has started questioning high-ranking officers of the ministry, accusing them of collaborating with the armed groups. The questioning concentrates on how the special plans of the ministry reach the armed groups and how the detailed information about them has completely disappeared. The concerned officers are still under detention and questioning. (Baghdad is a daily newspaper issued by the Iraqi National Accord.)

Caveat emptor: The INA isn't exactly known as a truth-telling central--still, if all they're doing is citing a radio report... Nor would such infiltration be surprising. As Anthony Cordesman (who  I just hand my blog over to) put it in a recent report:

Dual loyalty and HUMINT penetration of Iraqi security and military forces may be the rule, rather than the exception.

About the U.S. - Insurgent Confab

Here's the most interesting part:

According to a Sunday Times of London report, U.S. officials met with some of the insurgency's most notorious groups, including the Ansar al-Sunnah Army.

Ansar is a flat-out jihadi group. Turns out, not surprisingly, they now deny they  met with the American infidels. And the  Pentagon is denying ever having  met with the terrorists:

A senior American officer insisted that there had been no contact with extremist groups such as the Ansar al-Sunnah Army; nor had representatives of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the leader of al-Qa'eda in Iraq who has a $25 million bounty on his head, been present.

I don't know what to make of all this--except to use it as a reminder to tread gently when making pronouncements about what's going on in our 51st state.

It's  not a perfect example--presumably the meetings  took place or they didn't (as opposed to pontificating on  general, and difficult to quantify trends). Still, it reminds me that we should be humble in our assessments--because, ultimately, we may know as much as we think we do. As  Anthony Cordesman put it the other day (recalled from memory), "Nobody is an Iraq expert anymore. Things are moving  too quickly for even people in Iraq  to really understand it."

Cuban Coke Factory Raided

Yes yes, as in Coca-Cola:

SANTA CLARA, Cuba - June 23 (Ramón González Abreu, Cubanacán Press / www.cubanet.org) - Special police forces here raided a clandestine soft-drink factory operating out of a home in the El Condado neighborhood, arrested the occupants and seized products and equipment.

Forces of the Interior Ministry Special Brigades found cases of soft drinks, a bottle-filling machine, carbonation equipment and other tools.

The occupants were charged with possession of equipment in pursuit of an illegal economic activity, but they claimed the equipment was all lawfully acquired in hard-currency stores.

Ahhh the joys of entrepreneurship in Cuba. Here's what I wrote last year during my trip to the island:

Walk around downtown and there appears to be at least a smattering of private enterprise. There are multiple car rental companies, even seemingly competing fast food joints (El Rapido and Burgui). Some are run by one government ministry, others by another (for example, some car rental companies are overseen by the tourist department; others are overseen by the ministry of transportation), but in the end all the businesses are owned by the state. "It's the Duff Beer economy," says one expat. "It might all look different, but it's all coming from the same spout."