Eric Umansky

Reality-Check: Pakistan

From the NYT:

Two opinion polls released this week show that the standing of the religious parties has fallen to a new low, with voters showing a strong shift of support toward the moderate parties.

A survey of more than 3,000 people at the end of January by the International Republican Institute showed that the religious parties could command only 1 percent of the vote nationally.

Pakistan

This--from the NYT-- about sums it up for me:

“The major reason for militancy is lack of democracy and governance,” said Talat Masood, a political analyst and retired general. “They’ve been overlooked for short-term gains, and there are not even short-term gains anymore.”

The amazing thing to me is that we've been sticking by Musharraf--in a way that's ultimately counter-productive--while he hasn't even been delivering on his promises to go over AQ/Taliban. All-in-all it's a pretty good  example of why supporting a strongman, in the interest of "realism," as often as not comes back to bite you in the ass.   

Update: My former Slate colleague Fred Kaplan has a more measured take.

The Coming Deaths in Pakistan

One of the things we do in life to keep ourselves sane is assign higher value to those closer to, and more like, us: My brother is worth more to me  than my cousin whom I value more than my fellow citizen whom I value more than, well, a  random human-being on the planet. I don't think it is  always   this way, and I don't think it should be.

Think about the response to Katrina--where hundreds of thousands left their houses--and the response to Pakistan--where millions lost their homes, and at least tens of thousands are now at risk of freezing to death.

It is understandable that we respond more to those who are (both physically and pyschologically) closer to us. But expanding the circle of caring (which, I know, sounds hippy) is what underpins much of the fight for  human-rights and frankly, a moral society. 

Anyway,  just saying.

Also, Anne-Marie Slaughter is right: The disaster in Pakistan isn't just an opportunity for the U.S. government to do the right thing in a moral sense, but in a pratical one too. It is an opportunity to build goodwill in one of the area's of the world where it could the  U.S. enormous good. Remember what Marine General Gregson said about one of the most crucial things to do  for the war on terror: "Put us on the side of the angels ."*

*I don't think being on the "side of angels" is enough. Killing AQ is still neccesary.
But any solid strategy needs to encompass both.

Our Friends the Pakistanis

CNN comes through with a fascinating and disturbing report--by Barbara Starr--from Afghanistan near the  Pakistani border:

U.S. troops on this frontline told us they simply do not trust Pakistani forces  to keep infiltrators from coming into Afghanistan to attack.

A senior military commander on the border told us he no longer tells the Pakistanis when his men are launching operations fearing they could be compromised. And U.S. troops are seeing a disturbing new pattern they say indicates a network of support still exists inside Pakistan for these fighters. "Really in the past four or five months," said [one officer], "they've been well-equipped. They have standardized equipment: AK-47s, communications equipment, grenades, signaling equipment."

None of this is new. But is it getting worse? 

Afghanistan also seems to getting  increasingly pissed off about Pakistan's ways. Three  Pakistanis were arrested this week in Afghanistan purportedly minutes before they were to execute their plan to off  the outgoing U.S. ambassador.  (They were caught with rockets in their car.)  The NYT, covering that story,  had this:

Afghan officials abandoned their long-held reticence over Pakistan's behavior toward Afghanistan, and the two senior officials accused Pakistan on Monday of interfering in Afghanistan and of supporting militants.

[...]

Afghanistan has asked for a high-level meeting with Pakistan and the United States to discuss the problem, but so far Pakistan has expressed willingness only to meet at a lower level, said one of two senior Afghan officials who spoke Monday on the condition of anonymity because of the diplomatic sensitivity of the subject. The official said Pakistan had rebuffed a proposal by Afghanistan for a hot line to share intelligence.

P.S. CNN report was on  a  (newish?) show called "Your  World  Today."  It is...  I'm having trouble finding the word here... good.

Pakistan FBI torture allegations

I just spoke to Human Right Watch's Brad Adams, head of the org's Asia division.  "We get a lot  people telling us stuff a lot" he said. "We often don’t  put them out. But  we think these very credible."  Then I asked Brad about the fact that the only response from the U.S. government mentioned in the press release comes in the form of a two-month-old statement from the consulate in Karachi, which said:

“We are aware of the reports indicating two American citizens are missing, or ‘disappeared’ in Pakistan, and we are looking into them. Due to Privacy Act considerations, we are unable to provide additional information on these two individuals. The safety and security of Americans overseas is of paramount importance to us, and we continue to work both here and abroad to provide all possible assistance to our citizens. I refer you to the FBI for any information on their involvement.” 

Has the administration seen fit to release any more information or make a higher level comment? "No," says Adams. "The administration has  made a considered decision to leave it at that level."  Good to know they're so concerned about privacy. And just for the record, U.S. consulates are required to look into allegations of mistreatment against citizens.

Two U.S. citizens tortured in Pakistan; FBI complicit?

So says Human Rights Watch. The allegations are based on interviews with the two men as well as apparent confirmation from (anonymous) diplomats and Pakistani government  sources:

(New York, May 24, 2005) -- U.S. FBI agents operating in Pakistan repeatedly interrogated and threatened two U.S. citizens of Pakistani origin who were unlawfully detained and subjected to torture by the Pakistani security services, Human Rights Watch said today. The brothers Zain Afzal and Kashan Afzal were abducted from their home in Karachi at about 2 a.m. on August 13, 2004. They were released on April 22, 2005 without having been charged.

During eight months of illegal detention, Zain Afzal and Kashan Afzal were routinely tortured by Pakistani authorities to extract confessions of involvement in terrorist activities. During this period, FBI agents questioned the brothers on at least six occasions. The FBI agents did not intervene to end the torture, insist that the Pakistani government comply with a court order to produce the men in court, or provide consular facilities normally offered to detained U.S. citizens. Instead, they threatened the men with being sent to the U.S. detention facility at Guantanamo Bay if they did not confess to involvement in terrorism.

One brother testified:

I would be beaten regularly during this time and when I was ill with fever, they refused to give me any medicine. There were other prisoners there but I could not talk to them, but I heard people call for water. Occasionally, they would say “you will go to Cuba” or “we will hand you over to the FBI.” Often I would be beaten for asking for water or food or medicine.   

I told the FBI that I was illegally detained and had been tortured. They said they would try to help but that all decisions were to be taken by Pakistani authorities and Pakistan was beyond their jurisdiction.

[...]

Our last interrogation took place about 10 days before our release and for the first time my brother and I were called together. They said "Your case is almost over" and "You will be released soon. ... But we will only release you on condition that you will never speak to the press or media or speak against us. Your well-being lies in silence otherwise you and your family will be in big trouble." Then they made us write a statement that said that we had not been held by any government or semi-government agency and were writing this statement of our own free will.

The administration's response so far hasn't exactly been reassuring. "We are aware of the reports indicating two American citizens are missing, or 'disappeared' in Pakistan," said the U.S. consulate in Karachi. "And we are looking into them."

 

Madrasa Misconceptions

We all--and by that I mean, you, me, and Rummy--at least all agree that madrassas in Pakistan and elsewhere provide  fodder for jihadism, right? Well, according to a piece in this month's Foreign Policy (not online that I see), we're all a bit off-base.  The story cites a World Bank -funded study  concluding that madrassas aren't really very popular in Pakistan, less than one percent of students attend them a number that's stayed pretty constant for years.  I knowthat's only kinda interesting (at best).  Here's the part that really caught my eye (excerpt from FP):

In fact, the Sustainable Development Policy Institute, a Pakistani NGO , reported in 2004 that it was the country's public schools that promote hatred. The curriculum for many secular subjects, such as Urdu and social studies, is suffused with extremist Islamic teachings. Under pressure to reform the madrasa system, President Gen. Pervez Musharaf has said he will eventually require every religious school to adopt the public school curriculum. But such a move could make matters worse. "Targeting madrasas directly is missing the point. Improving the quality of [public] schools in Pakistan is the most useful reform," says Tahir Andrabi, author of the World Bank report.

Let Freedom Reign (Pakistan edition)

For those who'd rather not  stare at  smoke signals, take a look over at Pakistan, where an opposition leader returned to  the country triumphantly  and was promptly arrested and  "confined to his home." That's been covered a bit in the U.S. press. What's less known is that a few thousand of the politician's supporters, who tried to welcome him were were also thrown in the slammer.   From Human Rights Watch:

The wave of arrests began on April 14 to prevent supporters from gathering at Lahore Airport to receive Zardari on April 16. Thousands of PPP supporters were arrested across Punjab and in the southern province of Sindh. Others were prevented by police and military intelligence personnel from crossing the provincial border into Punjab from Sindh and Pakistan-administered Kashmir.

PPP supporters who managed to reach the Lahore party headquarters near the airport and the airport itself were dragged away by the police. Police beat and manhandled many supporters, including women, when they attempted to chant slogans or protest police brutality. At least three women were severely injured and have been hospitalized.

And what do you think our democracy-lovin' administraiton has said about this latest step towards freedom? [Bonus journalism points: I couldn't find anything on the Web from the State Dept. about it, but just to make sure, I have a call into their press office. Don't hold your breath.]

Things heating up in Pakistan?

So says the Christian Science Monitor:

More than five years since President Pervez Musharraf's coup, religious extremists are moving to the forefront in challenging Pakistan's political order.

Last week, hundreds of extremist demonstrators armed with bamboo sticks blocked a 10K road race near the finish line to protest the participation of women runners. A gun battle with police ensued, leaving several people wounded.

In a surprise to many here, the incident took place not in the conservative tribal areas, but in the country's Punjab heartland.

"There is a perception among the think tanks in Washington and Pakistan that both the main opposition parties should be given some room, as their absence would strengthen politically the extremist parties," says Ayesha Haroon, editor of Pakistan's The Nation newspaper. "We may see a more radical path if democratic outlets are not relaxed."

Pakistan's two previous prime ministers, Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif, live in exile. But in a move widely seen as a positive step toward restoring democracy, Ms. Bhutto's husband was recently released from prison and plans to run her party's affairs in Pakistan.

Mr. Sharif, meanwhile, by some accounts remains barred from politics for another five years. But he still acts as leader of his mainstream party. To prevent losing his conservative constituency to the religious parties, he has thrown his backing behind a nationwide strike called this month by the religious parties.

I'm no expert on, er, anything, but particularly Pakistan. So I will hereby refrain front from commenting/speculating. But read the whole piece, because there are few dynamics at work.