Eric Umansky

Lebanon cheat-sheet

The New Republic has a really solid breakdown of the main players in Lebanon.  I particularly enjoyed  the sketch of opposition leader Walid Jumblatt:

Once a staunch Syrian ally, and a longtime friend to Yasser Arafat's PLO, the Druze leader is now the hero of Lebanon's anti-Syrian resistance. He's toasted by the likes of David Ignatius and hailed by Thomas Friedman as "the courageous Walid Jumblatt." But Jumblatt hasn't always been democracy's darling: In February of 2003, he opined that the United States was governed by an evil "axis of oil and Jews," consigning U.S. Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz to the "axis of Jews" and then-National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice, "who is oil-colored," as he weirdly put it, to the oil axis.

[...]

No matter how many times he changes course, Jumblatt always ends up with the winning side--and in this case, that's not likely to be Syria.

On another note, sorry for the posts deficit. I'm working on a story, and actually, will be  away on a reporting trip next week. My hotel swears it has Wi-Fi. We'll see. Also,  for any TP readers: I'll be off-the-clock for the next two weeks.

Nuance in the Levant

In Today's Papers this morning, I wrote:

While the protest movement has largely transcended religious and sectarian lines, the Post flags one element largely missing: Shiites. Hezbollah has stuck by Syria. "As long as Israel is on the other side of the border, Lebanon and Syria will be in the same bunker," said a spokesman. "We share a bilateral destiny."

That's an accurate summary of the Post's point. But an old  buddy of mine , Pierre Habshi, gently explained to me that it's also simplistic.  Habshi is  Lebanese and has long worked in the region. I'll take his quickie assessment over the Post's, thanks: 

Shiites are not out of the picture completely. Hizbollah is wisely playing the middle, but they understand that times have changed. They have stated their need for a Syrian alliance and that has impacted the opposition's statements ("we do not want to be enemies with Syria, but a good neighbor..."), but they are also talking to the opposition, as they have been for years;

 

Also, the Shiites have a secular party as well, Amal, whose leader heads parliament (Nabih Berry). Amal was willing to support Karami government but at the same time has not openly criticized the opposition's agenda. 

 

Both major Shiite parties are cautiously balancing their political interests (close alliance with Syria) with the feelings of most of their constituents (resentment of the Syrians). The crucial point is that unlike in the past, Shiites leaders are keeping mum about the opposition agenda today, even though just a year ago they would have been harshly critical of opposition statements calling for a re-appraisal of lebanese-syrian relations, which is far less of what the opposition is demanding today.