Eric Umansky

The Taliban and Global Warming

Barnett Rubin, a top expert on Afghanistan, has a post up pointing out that one of the biggest problems in Afghanistan over the past year has been soaring food prices. People literally can't pay for bread:

I had heard quite a bit about this bread. Someone told me that food prices had gone up 70 percent. After General Musharraf declared a state of Emergency during my visit in November, notes from Pakistani friends often spoke of a growing shortage of "atta" (whole wheat flour). On my flight to Delhi from Kabul I sat with a senior official of the Indian Customs Service who was advising the Afghan Customs Department. He told me that Afghanistan was importing only ten percent the amount of wheat that it had last year....

And of course, when you can't put food on the table,  that might make you less sympathetic to your government and more sympathetic to insurgents, say the Taliban. Barnett again:

At several meetings I have heard former Minister of Finance of Afghanistan Ashraf Ghani say that the most common definition of a "Talib" in southern Afghanistan is "an unemployed youth." Some Kandahari fruit traders I interviewed said that nearly all the fighting in Afghanistan was due to unemployment. Statistically, youth employment is one of the most robust correlates of civil violence.

Wondering what accounts for the price increase, Barnett came across this article in the WSJ:

The little known Minneapolis Grain Exchange is suddenly one of the hottest spots in the global financial markets....Minneapolis has become ground zero for the global wheat shortage, which has been caused by drought in Australia and poor weather in other grain-producing countries. Global stocks are projected to reach 30-year lows this year, while U.S. stocks will reach 60-year lows.

The rise in agricultural prices, combined with high oil prices .. have contributed to higher food inflation in the U.S. and around the world....

To cope with high prices, countries have been rationing supplies by leveling tariffs or taxes on grain exports. [Kazakhstan and Syria have taxed or canceled exports, while Jordan and Egypt are short of food.] Pakistan recently stopped exporting some of its wheat flour to Afghanistan.

It's obviously way speculative to assert that global warming is contributing to the Taliban insurgency. But it's also perfectly plausible.  There's a reason the Pentagon has started studying the national security threat posed by global warming. 

The 'Assassination Clause'

There have been at least seven Afghan political candidates assassinated in recent weeks. Here's the NYT on the latest one:

Abdul Hadi, a candidate for the 249-member Parliament from Helmand Province, just west of here, was awakened early this morning by a knock on his door in the remote Hazajoft district, near the Pakistani border, and shot dead at his doorstep, a police official said by telephone.

I have nothing to add, except for this which I just noticed on Human Rights Watch's web site:

Human Rights Watch also expressed concern about a provision in Afghanistan’s electoral law that allows losing candidates to take the seats of winning candidates who die or resign from office—the so-called “assassination clause.” 

“The so-called assassination clause should be repealed on an urgent basis,” said Zarifi. “The last thing Afghanistan needs is the election’s losers murdering the winners to take their seats.”

No, I don't think this is central to the assassination campaign. Still, worth knowing...

A Not Very Peaceful Afghan Protest

It's not exactly freedom on the march:

BAGRAM, Afghanistan (AP) — Hundreds of protesters chanting "Die America!" and throwing stones tried to batter down a gate at the U.S. military's main Afghan base Tuesday, adding to anxieties in a country worried that fighting with insurgents could disrupt elections...

The demonstrators said they were angry that U.S. troops arrested the villagers late Monday without consulting local authorities.

"We have supported the Americans for years. We should be treated with dignity," said Shah Aghar, 35. "They are arresting our people without the permission of the government. They are breaking into our houses and offending the people. We are very angry."

The U.S. detention (and treatment) of Afghan detainees is one of those issues that doesn't exactly have tons of traction stateside. But not surprisingly it seems to be something of big deal   for Afghans. an  A few weeks ago, the WSJ mentioned:

The Karzai government wants custody over Afghans held by the U.S., and greater control over American military operations in the country. The Bush administration has rebuffed both requests. "Success depends on maintaining" Afghan goodwill, cautions Afghan Ambassador Said Tayeb Jawad.

I'm not convinced Afghans would get better treatment if they were being held by the Afghan government but I'm curious how the arrangement works now and whether their might be any ways to improve it--both from a P.R. perspective and a humanitarian one.  For instance, in Iraq, there's an (overworked) board of Americans and Iraqis who review detainee cases and can reccomend releasing prisoners. Does Afghanistan have a similar system?

Afghanistan: Murders in the Midst

Human Rights Watch has a new report about how many top officials in Afghanistan are, well, murders--or as HRW puts it "are implicated in major war crimes and human rights abuses that took place in the early 1990s":

Human Rights Watch's report implicates numerous factional leaders and commanders for their role in the abuses, including:

- Abdul Rabb al-Rasul Sayyaf, a radical Islamist commander and leader of the Ittihad-e Islami faction, who now advises President Karzai and exercises major political power over the Afghan judiciary and has numerous proxies within the Afghan government;

- Abdul Rashid Dostum, the leader of the Junbish-e Milli faction who now holds a senior post in the ministry of defense and exercises political control of several provinces in the north of Afghanistan;

- Mohammad Qasim Fahim, Afghanistan's defense minister from 2001 to 2004 and a commander in the Jamiat-e Islami/Shura-e Nazar faction of Burhanuddin Rabbani and Ahmed Shah Massoud (who was killed in 2001); and

- Karim Khalili, a commander in the Hezb-e Wahdat faction and now one of President Karzai's two vice-presidents.

HRW doesn't make a nod to toward the obvious tension between justice and reconciliation or peace. South Africa, among others, essentially choice the later. The difference is that in Afghanistan neither is happening at the moment. Maybe Afghanistan  isn't stable enough to even launch a Truth and Reconciliation-type commission right now. And I  drawing these guys into the government is a  type of reconciliation. But  there's  not much truth going on at the moment.

Attention Feature writers: Get your pitches (and cliches) ready

From IWPR:

FEMALE FOOTBALLERS OVERCOME OBSTACLES

Afghanistan's first women's team looks forward to performing on the
international stage.

By Mohammad Jawad Sharifazda in Kabul

They practice on concrete rather than on grass, and their kit is far from
uniform, but Afghanistan's premier women's football team is looking forward
to making history this summer when it plays its first international match.

Even before they step onto the pitch at the Banuwan women's competition in
Iran in August, the women of Kabul Selected will have overcome more
obstacles than most athletes.

The team has been playing in organised leagues for a little more than a
year. When they began, most training took place behind closed doors. While
they still lack the amenities available to male players, the best players
from the capital's 12 girls' teams have moved into the open.

Ranging in age from 12 to 18, they train on the concrete apron next to the
grass field at Kabul Athletic Stadium, where the Taleban once conducted
public executions. The grass is usually reserved for male teams, so the
women make do with a practice area smaller than a regulation pitch.

They wear caps and outfits in varied colours that cover them from head to
toe.

Few have more than a few months' experience, but what they lack in skill
they make up in enthusiasm.

Team captain Shamila, 16, has been playing for six months. She can recite a
litany of obstacles that she and her teammates face, including lack of
transportation to and from practices, inadequate training facilities and
even the absence of snacks.

Shamila said she and her teammates would prefer to have a female coach,
although they have no complaints about Abdul Saboor Walizada, 41, their
current trainer, a man.

Then there are the neighbourhood gossips who can't accept the idea of female
athletes.

"The neighbours haven't said anything to me directly, but my father was
asked, 'Why is your daughter playing football?' " said Shamila.

"'I myself told her to play football,' my father told him," Shamila
continued with a trace of pride in her voice.

Much work still needs to be done. Kabul Selected has yet to face an opponent
on a regulation football pitch and the current roster of 25 players must be
reduced to 18 before their first match.

Sayed Ahmad Zia Mozafari, secretary general of the Afghan football
federation, said plans are in hand to help the girls' team, such as
providing it with a proper playing field near the Wahadat High School.

The federation will also try to recruit a female trainer from Germany.

Mozafari noted that that the Federation of International Football
Associations, FIFA, has pledged 35,000 US dollars to promote women's
football in Afghanistan - but said the money has yet to arrive.

Mohammad Jawad Sharifazda is an IWPR staff reporter in Kabul.

Kerry's policy for Afghanistan?

Bubkes.

I just watched John Edwards on Meet the Press. When asked about Afghanistan, Edwards mouthed "don't hem me in" B.S. He never mentioned massively increasing aid (as Bush promised and never delivered). Nor does Kerry's "plan" for Afghanistan. And asked about whether a Kerry administration would even consider adding U.S. troops, Edwards punted. He insisted NATO troops could do the job. That may be good politics, earth to Kerry: NATO doesn't want to put more troops in. And I'm guessing that saying "you guys can do it alone!" won't exactly convince them otherwise.

This fits with a pattern: Kerry seems to be lacking the vision or just guts to call for hard choices in the world. More on this later. And yes, I'm applying for provisional membership.

Let's make "this young century liberties century," Part X?

"U.S. HAND SEEN IN AFGHAN ELECTION; Some candidates say the embassy pressured them not to run against President Karzai. American officials deny the accusations." - today's Los Angeles Times.

The candidates told the LAT that the U.S. ambassador--who has apparently earned the nickname "The Viceroy"--tried to essentially bribe them with various posts in order not to run. "Our hearts have been broken because we thought we could have beaten Mr. Karzai if this had been a true election," said one now former candidate.

It's worth noting that most of the guys complaining seem to have been members of the Northern Alliance, a group not known for it's adherence to high fact-checking standards.