Jonathan Zasloff suspects Hamas is going to boycott the coming referendum on a two-state solution. His explanation: Hamas doesn't want to lead the government, it wants to be in the opposition:
Hamas has threatened to boycott the plebescite, which would virtually ensure its success. But that is exactly what Hamas wants. A successful plebescite would be read as a vote of no-confidence, "forcing" the government to resign. New elections would most likely result in a victory for Fatah, putting Hamas back in the opposition--exactly where it wants to be.
Islamists don't want responsibility: they want absolute power. They don't want the headaches of arranging to pay thousands of civil servants. They would prefer to criticize and build their credentials as radical revolutionaries, which they can't do in the current situation. They certainly don't want to share power with the likes of Abbas.
Hamas' task, then, is to get out of the government without suffering an embarrassing electoral loss. I suspect that they are now debating ways to lose the plebescite but being able to spin it as some sort of western-Israeli-Fatah conspiracy.
I'm skeptical. After all, no matter how you slice it, if Hamas loses the referendum it wll also lose face. And no organization wants that. Now maybe Hamas thinks boycotting the referendum and getting booted from office is the best, bad option, i.e. the way to lose the least face. Maybe. But it maybe it will also work out some sort of "kick the can down the road" deal with Abbas.
Anyway, when was the last time you saw a party that decided it would be in its interest to lose power--and actually followed through with that?
P.S. Having said all that, Zasloff makes some valid points out about Hamas and its interests--hence the link.
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