Hamas...

I feel queasier than ever now that Hamas has actually won--in a something of a landslide! But I still suspect the win will moderate the group. (Yes, weak wording.) And I still believe, the U.S. should not reflexively shun Hamas. Rather make dealing with them a function not of who they are but what they do. Abu Aarvark wraps it up well:

Honor the will of the people, demonstrate a commitment to democratic process, and see what happens.  Give Hamas the chance to prove its intentions.  Don't get too upset about the inevitable bursts of objectionable rhetoric by excited victors - test deeds, not early words.  Above alll, don't give the Islamist hardliners the winning argument they crave about American hypocrisy.  Refusing to deal with Hamas right now could effectively kill American attempts to promote democracy in the Middle East for a generation.

Interesting thing is, Bush might be considering that advice:

In a hastily called news conference intended in part to foreshadow the themes of next week's State of the Union address, Bush sought to put the results of yesterday's elections in a positive light -- while refusing to say categorically whether the United States would cut off aid or stop dealing with a new Palestinian government led by Hamas.

Or he may be spinning in support of his pro-democracy rhetoric. We'll see...

Comments

[Zathras]

Eric, I think that was a major reason President Bush went out of his way to urge PA President Abbas not to resign. Hoagland in the Post today disagrees; however, the presence of Abbas could give Bush (and the Israelis) an excuse to say they were dealing with a non-Hamas elected leader should they choose to discuss issues with the PA.

Which I think they have to, but this has two sides. Wright's academic point about terrorist groups moderating once they win an election is pretty dubious -- what they generally do is to set about eliminating their opponents. But in this particular case what seems to me more likely to happen is that holding power will undermine Hamas' internal cohesion, and eventually cause it to break up.

Fatah lost power primarily because of the corruption issue. The new Hamas parliament will first have to deal with that, no small task in any Arab country. It will also -- for its own protection -- have to attempt some rationalization of the Palestinian security services. To me what this means is that peace process issues are likely to go on the back burner from the PA point of view, possibly for several months (this will in any event be the case on the Israeli side as well). This may give the new parliament time to decide whether it wants to take the major steps required to negotiate in good faith with the Israelis and Americans.

Or, it may not. Dissension within Hamas may play itself out in the streets rather than in Parliament. Do Hamas have enough control over its members and those of the other terror gangs in Gaza and the West Bank to prevent them from trying to force issues by launching new suicide attacks against Israelis? If Abbas does stay and Hamas members grow discontented with a cessation of terrorism, is he not likely to become a target for assassination? Suppose corruption within the PA proves intractable -- might not Hamas try to preserve popularity by taking an extreme position toward the Israelis?

I don't know the answers to any of these questions, and don't claim that Hamas' victory will lead to an improvement in the situation. Only that, if certain things break the right way, there are good possibilities.

[Eric Umansky]

Zathras,

Interesting possibilities you've laid out. To add to them: I've begun wondering whether all this talk about Hamas now being in control is premature. Particularly since the security services, such as they are, are made up of Fatah-men, I wonder if what we're going to see in the near to medium term is Palestinian gov't institutions even more riven by infighting and paralysis.

That is, before we even get to the stage of wondering what Hamas is going to do as the ruling party--it needs to become the ruling party in some sort of meaningful sense. Maybe it won't get to that point anytime soon and we'll just the acceleration of the failed-state scenario...