Sobering

Read TNR's Spencer Ackerman on the "Class '05 Problem":

In between the Afghanistan and Iraq invasions, an Islamic extremist in a place like Europe had little opportunity to gain terrorist expertise to match his aspirations. He could scour the Internet for numerous jihadist how-to guides, which, to be sure, provide a great wealth of dangerous practical knowledge. *

Iraq is closing the loop between terrorist desire and terrorist ability. [A] Parisian or Milanese jihadist wannabe can now learn online which mosque in Syria to visit in order to meet the right middleman to smuggle him into Iraq, where Anbar province-based terrorist cells are eager for new recruits. Once in Iraq, he can learn all about remote-detonated improvised explosive devices and urban combat--extremely valuable skills for him to take back home, where he can pass them along to his associates. In May, classified CIA and State Department analyses warned about the serious threat that such terrorist "bleed out" from Iraq poses to U.S. national security.

Already, according to Knight Ridder, tactics used by insurgents in Iraq are showing up in places like Afghanistan, where there has been a recent upsurge in Al Qaeda and Taliban attacks. It may only be a matter of time before they show up in Europe--and, eventually, here in the United States. Last year in Madrid and, most likely, yesterday in London, we saw what destruction jihadists without Iraq experience can inflict; those with Anbar province on their resumes can almost certainly do worse. Barring a dramatic reversal of our fortunes in Iraq, the class of '05 may soon be ready to seek some horrific post-graduation employment.

###
* There was always Chechnya and to a lesser degree, Bosnia. But I think the overall point is still holds: Iraq has become  both a recruiting tool and a training one. And one day, we may be faced with the consequences.

Comments

[Zathras]

Yes and no. No one can deny that jihadists who survive Iraq can go elsewhere later armed with more terrorists skills. This is likely to be a major problem in countries like Afghanistan, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia.

What these countries have in common are readily available explosives and a population terrorists can hide in. Most Western countries lack one or both of these, and in the case of the United States gaining entry is not so easy for most people from Arab countries in particular as it used to be.

This is apart from the debating point, whether the Iraq operation has increased or reduced the threat of terrorism. I'm just saying as a practical matter it is likely the threat has increased most in the places we care least about. Jihadist experience in Iraq could be helpful in figuring out how to bomb a hotel in Riyadh, not so helpful in an effort to blow up a chemical plant in Louisiana.