Eric Umansky

Dept. of Silver Linings

From IWPR's Iraqi Press Monitor:

CRIME FALLS IN FALLUJAH

 

(Al-Taakhi) – Prime Minister Iyad Allawi last Monday said the crime rate had fallen after the last offensive launched by US and Iraqi forces on Fallujah. "The crime rate is still decreasing. Although cleaning up the city continues, we are taking steps to bring Fallujans back," he added. Large parts of Fallujah have been described as an arsenal and an underground camp where explosives were hidden.
(Al-Taakhi is issued daily by the Kurdistan Democratic Party.)

Actually, I assume Allawi is referring (tre euphemistically) to insurgent attacks. But who knows.

Wanna know how Iraq is going?

Check out the stylish new vest Ambassador Negroponte is sporting.  (Did you ever see Bremer wear one of those?)

'They've just about given up'

The NYT's John Burns spent the day on a joint river patrol with Marines and with what Burns describes as one of the "best Iraqi units." It's a "special Iraqi commando unit assigned to the country's powerful Interior Ministry," with "many drawn from Saddam Hussein's special forces." So how did these A-listers perform? Burns:

"They've just about given up," said Lt. Jerman Duarte, 34, of Houston, his voice edged with exasperation.

As in so much else about the American venture in Iraq, cultural differences played their part. At one point, Lieutenant Duarte bridled when some of the Iraqis resisted his repeated urging that they spread out along the line, preferring to cluster together, ineffectively, at one end. A Marine sergeant told him that the Iraqis were officers and did not feel that they should be asked to work side by side with common soldiers.

One of the Iraqi officers, asked if he spoke English, replied snappily, "English no good. Arabic good. Iraq good." The message seemed clear.

Although recruits in the new Iraqi units undergo strict vetting, American officers say rebel sympathizers have infiltrated some of the new units - some of the soldiers have been caught tipping off rebel groups.

Surging Detainees in Iraq: Good thing or bad?

According to this morning's Wash Post:

ABU GHRAIB, Iraq, Nov. 26 -- More aggressive U.S. military operations in Iraq over the past two months have generated a surge in detainees, nearly doubling the number held by U.S. forces to about 8,300, according to the U.S. general in charge of detention operations.

The story--which is sourced almost exclusively to Maj. General Geoffery "Gitmoize" Miller-- suggests the rise in arrests is a good thing. And maybe it is.

But remember, last year the Red Cross concluded that 80-90 percent of detainees were innocent. (A military report backed that up.) That percentage probably dropped  a bunch over the last year since the U.S. released about half of all detainees.

Are loads of innocents being  picking up again?  It all comes down to intel. The U.S.'s has been bad since the beginning. Maybe tons of high-quality tips are suddenly flowing in.  But it's unlikely, considering Iraqis'  ever-falling support for the occupation, and insurgents' brutal intimidation campaign. 

And if indeed large numbers of innocent Iraqis are being arrested, well, that's not a good thing. As one observer put it, a big-sweeps, "iron-fisted approach" tends to "alienate Iraqis." Oh, wait, that's not just an observer, it was General Ricardo Sanchez, quoted in a story last year: "TO MOLLIFY IRAQIS, U.S. PLANS TO EASE SCOPE OF ITS RAIDS."

Let Freedom Reign (Iraqi media edition)

From IWPR's Iraqi Press Monitor:

AL-JAZEERA A ‘TERRORIST’ CHANNEL...

(Baghdad)Qatar’s al-Jazeera satellite television is a terrorist channel, according to Minister of Defence Hazim al-Shalan, who threatened to confront the channel “not only with words”. Shalan said Omar Hadeed is “absolutely” the brother of Jazeera’s office manager in , Hamid Hadeed. Omar Hadeed is the senior aide of Iraq's most wanted man, the alleged terrorist Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. The Minister accused Hamid Hadeed of having connections with the al-Qaeda terrorist network and of being involved in conducting attacks in Baghdad.(Baghdad  is a daily newspaper issued by the Iraqi National Accord.)

Michael Ware is Super-Shrill

Time's Baghdad bureau chief is on my local NPR  (WNYC)  right now and he's taking some serious swings: 

On the elections: "You can set any Disneyland date you want. It will look like an election, it will sound like an election, but it won't  be anything other than a sham."

Other broadsides:

"Honestly, I see day by day as we add to the ranks of the insurgency. I've seen civilians atomized before my eyes by the military. That's not meant to be a criticism of the individual soldiers or the military...."

Asked whether there are going to be other Fallujah like situations, he said, "Absolutely. Fallujah was a spectacular act of defiance for the insurgents. But there will be similar acts here, there, everywhere.  This doesn't feel like victory for me."

"We are giving the birth to the next generation of jihadists. 9/11 was a pandora's box. Bin Laden was then hoping for a platform to propel the cause...and we gave it to him."

"Insurgents used to say to me, 'I'm fighting to get the U.S. out of Iraq--Iraq for Iraqis.' Now they say, 'I'm fighting for Islam.' We've created the next Bin Laden, Zarqawi. He was a marginal figure before the war, and now,  he's actually competing with him for primacy."

I'll post more when WNYC posts the transcript. (Also note, my transcription is rough; I'm just typing as I'm listening.)

World's most expensive taxi-ride

Next time you're reading about how GIs are heading off to pacify one Iraqi city or another, remember the road to the airport. 

There is probably no place in the country with a higher concentration of troops than between Baghdad's airport and the Green Zone. Want to know how pacified it is? This, from the BBC:

A 15-mile stretch between Baghdad airport and the city centre is said to be the world's most expensive taxi ride.

Small convoys of armoured cars and Western gunmen charge about £2,750 ($5,108) for the perilous journey.

The route, known as the Qadisiyah Expressway, has become the scene of regular attacks and kidnappings by insurgents.

Security costs have soared in Iraq reflecting the escalating risks for foreign workers.

The high-speed drive costs four times more than the £670 Royal Jordanian charges for a one-way flight from London to Baghdad via Amman.

It equates to about £183 a mile compared to 25p a mile for the 2,540-mile flight on the only commercial airline flying to Baghdad.

'Gun car'

"You could jump in an Iraqi taxi with a gun and get there for $20," said one security contractor, quoted by the UK's Times newspaper.

But with kidnappings a daily occurrence and Westerners being sold to Islamist militant groups for about £150,000, he advised against it.

A few thousand pounds will afford you two cars and four Western ex-military bodyguards, usually American, South African or British, packing MP5 submachine guns, M16 rifles and/or AK47 assault rifles.

The client rides in one vehicle at speeds averaging 100 mph, while the other, called the "gun car", travels close-by, looking out for potential assailants.

Since the beginning of the resistance, this vital route has come under attack from car bombs, suicide attacks, snipers and rocket-propelled grenades.

P.S. Today NYT adds, " A soldier, from the First Cavalry Division, was shot in the head and killed by sniper fire on Monday while his convoy was stopped on the airport road in Baghdad."

Our new best buds in Iraq: Hezbollah

From IWPR's Iraqi Press Monitor:

FIGHT OVER FALLUJAH JUSTIFIED SAYS OFFICIAL

(Al-Bayyna) - Deputy Foreign Minister Hamid al-Bayati said Fallujah is once again part of the country after being freed of the foreign terrorists. Bayati added that the government decided to interfere to reunite it to the country following requests by Fallujans. The military operations were the last option left after all others failed. The government has decided to impose control on all the places of tension to free the residents from the terrorists. What is going on in Latifiya is a catastrophe that the government knows how to handle. We cannot leave our country to the terrorists who are trying to ignite a sectarian war in Iraq, he added.
(Al-Bayyna is a weekly paper issued by the Hezbollah movement in Iraq.)

I don't know what's going on here. But FYI, Hezbollah is a Shiite group. So what looks like good news,  and may be another sign of the increasing sectarian fighting. 

Speaking of which, this is another bad sign:

Gunmen on Monday assassinated a member of an influential Sunni clerics' group that has called for a boycott of national elections. [...]  Sheik Faidh Mohamed Amin al-Faidhi, a member of the Association of Muslim Scholars, was shot by gunmen at his home in northern Mosul — a sign of the continuing violence that wracks the country.

I wonder if the shooting has any connection to these guys:

In Basra, in the south, about 300 Shiite Arabs have banded together into a group called the Anger Brigades to battle extremist Sunni Arabs, Ali al-Mahdi, a spokesman for the group, said in an interview. The founding of the group raised the specter of new sectarian conflict in this deeply divided society.

[...]

Mr. Mahdi, the spokesman for the Anger Brigades, said the new Shiite militant group was demanding that prominent Sunni clerics here and in Saudi Arabia issue an edict calling on Sunni extremists not to kill Shiites. Otherwise, he said, the Anger Brigades will start hunting down the Sunni fighters, believed to be foreigners.

Also, not that I'm suggesting anything, but Iyad Allawi also happens to have  some relevant experience.

What's interesting about generals' call for more troops

So some generals have told the Wash Post we need more GIs in Iraq. Not a shocker. But note how they did it:

"What's important is to keep the pressure on these guys now that we've taken Fallujah from them," a high-ranking U.S. military commander said, speaking on condition he not be named because of the sensitivity of the deliberations on adding more troops.

Remember, Bush has always argued he'll send more troops just as soon as commanders ask for them.  As my grandmother would say: Nu? If Bush is so happy to hear from commanders, why would they feel compelled to start a whisper (begging) campaign in the press?

Now as Kevin Drum reminds, the U.S.  is basically fresh out of troops to send. That suggests there are no  perfect short-term  solutions, and wisest thing would be to increase the size of the army. That will take a year or two. Maybe the U.S. wouldn't need the GIs by then, maybe it would. In any case, what are the chances Bush will bite the bullet and order the increase?

 

Kevin Sites speaks

He's the one who filmed last week's shooting of a wounded, unarmed insurgent in Fallujah. He's been getting death threats.  And hasn't spoken the press. But yesterday he posted his side of the story on his blog.